To Escape Bird Flu Move To The Country

People who lived in the country were much less likely to die with deadly flu than those who lived in towns and cities, according to a study of the worst pandemic to hit Britain.

During the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic an estimated 50 million people were killed worldwide by the virus, with the biggest toll felt by young adults, and scientists around the world are now studying historical records to find out what lessons can be learned in preparation for the next pandemic.

“Death rates were 30-40 per cent higher in cities and towns as compared with rural areas,” said Prof Gerardo Chowell of Arizona State University, one of the authors of the study of the impact on England and Wales published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society, Biological Sciences.

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Bird Flu Still World’s Most Lethal Threat

If everyone thought the mutated human killer variant of bird flu had died a death over the last few months, you would have been totally wrong. All the following were recorded this month:

China  a father and son were diagnosed with the virus. 60 per cent of all infected have died.

Pakistan – for the first time in the history of Pakistan, bird flu was confirmed after two brothers died.

Indonesia – a man from an area west of Jakarta died from bird flu.

Poland – a fresh outbreak of the deadly H5N1 virus bird flu was discovery at two poultry farms.

Benin – the west African country recorded its first suspected cases of bird flu.

Russia – an outbreak of bird flu on a farm in southern Russia.

Saudi Arabia – the bird flu scare has gripped Saudi Arabia and forced the government to cull almost 4.5 million birds.

But the most disturbing news this week is that scientists have created the human killer virus in the lab. The dreaded H5N1 avian flu, as feared, finally mutated last August into a virulent form that can easily spread from person to person, increasing the likelihood of a pandemic that could kill hundreds of millions much like 1918s infamous Spanish flu.

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Some States Not Stocking Up On Pandemic Medicines

Wyoming is among six states that received the lowest score for being prepared for a potential influenza pandemic.

A research group measured each state in ten categories.

The states that got the lowest score were Arkansas, Iowa, Mississippi, Nevada, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Seven states have yet to participate in a federal program to buy antivirals for a potential influenza pandemic. Wyoming is not among them.

The top states in being prepared are Illinois, Kentucky, Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Virginia.

Blogging about Pakistan’s Bird Flu

This is terrific! A blogger, blogging about bloggers who blog about bird flu.

Bird flu bloggers are busy writing about the outbreak in Pakistan, where eight people have been infected with bird flu and one has died. If bird flu morphs into a pandemic, easily spread human-to-human, the first hint of global peril may come from these bloggers.

The bird flu bloggers are not taking blood samples and culling chicken flocks in Indonesia or Pakistan. But they are good at tracking news, medical journal reports and official announcements to let their readers know what’s credible, new or bears watching. That is a valuable service.

Bird flu outbreaks generate hundreds of news items, many incomplete and sometimes contradictory. Knowing which sources are reliable, what information might be suspect and where government pressure may have had a role in the information flow, takes experience and the bird flu bloggers are getting plenty of it.

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Islamabad – Holidays Cancelled Over Bird Flu Threat

Dr Saeed Ahmed, senior director of the Capital Development Authority CDA, and District Health Services DHS has cancelled Eid holidays of the staff concerned because of threat of bird flu.

In a statement issued here on Wednesday, Dr Saeed said that directives had been issued to the staff concerned about cancellation of their holydays. The DHS has also launched a special fumigation campaign against the disease in various sectors of the city.

He said 35 poultry shops had been fumigated and an awareness campaign against the disease had been on, focusing on poultry farm workers and shopkeeper. He said poultry shops and kitchens in hotels should be covered up to keep flies away. He said the DHA had issued notices to 58 poultry shopkeepers because of poor hygienic condition and asked them to keep their shops clean. staff report

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Businesses Must Prepare Now for Flu Pandemic Outbreak

Pandemics are inevitable and businesses must prepare now by developing continuity plans in case of a flu outbreak, said Scott Mugno, managing director, corporate safety, health and fire protection at FedEx Express.

According to Mugno, pandemics will happen and have happened regularly throughout history. Some examples include the 1918 Spanish flu, responsible for 40 to 50 million deaths worldwide and 675,000 deaths in the United States; the 1957 Asian flu that caused one to four million deaths, 70,000 in the United States; and the 1968 Hong Kong flu also responsible for one to four million deaths, 34,000 within the United States. Not to mention the increasing cases of avian bird flu developing worldwide. It is necessary, he said, for businesses to have a continuity plan in place before the next major pandemic flu outbreak.

The term flu pandemic refers to a new influenza virus that people have little to no immunity to and there is no available vaccine, making a pandemic a global disease outbreak, said Mugno, during a recent webinar for the American Society of Safety Engineers ASSE, “Pandemic Influenza: Threat vs. Preparedness.

Currently, there is worldwide concern about the possible spread of the Avian H5N1 A H5N1 virus. The influenza A H5N1 virus raised concerns about a potential human pandemic because it is particularly potent. A H5N1 is spread by migratory birds and can be transmitted from birds to mammals and in some circumstances to humans. The virus continues to change and has a high death rate percentage in known human cases. As of Dec. 13, 2007, there are 339 known confirmed human cases of A H5N1 and 208 confirmed deaths, a fatality rate of 61 percent, according to the World Health Organization WHO.

However, Mugno said, “the A H5N1 may not be the pandemic flu. The key is for businesses and the public to stay informed and updated. Businesses need to teach awareness and take precautions now.”

Mugno said the key message from the U.S. government is, “given the magnitude of a severe pandemic influenza, individuals, families, businesses and local and state governments must prepare for the pandemic and not count on the federal government for a significant portion of support and relief.”

“Stay informed about the A H5N1 virus, especially if it evolves or mutates,” Mugno said. “Pay attention to news of doctors or nurses becoming infected, signs of clusters of infections, outbreaks in under developed areas or countries, news of quarantines, smuggling of birds, under reporting of H5N1 cases as well as expert consensus on precautions and tools. Stay informed and communicate, communicate, communicate.”

The economic and human impact of a possible pandemic is very costly. According to a March 2007 Trust for Americas Health Analysis, the U.S. economy could lose an estimated $683 billion, roughly 5.5 percent decline in annual GDP.

Key concerns of U.S. pandemic preparedness, according to Mugno, include lack of vaccine and vaccine production capability; inadequate capabilities to distribute vaccine and medical equipment; insufficient stockpile of antiviral drugs and other medical equipment; gaps in hospital and health care provider capacity to manage a surge of patients; a shortage in health care providers; and health insurance and workers comp issues; as well as the major threat to life.

Planning for an outbreak
The following are planning tips Mugno suggests on how businesses can prepare for a pandemic flu.

Establish trigger points to and checklists as waves of pandemic phases occur.
Review business demand shifts.
Prepare media point person for the pandemic.
Conduct company wide analysis of essential/nonessential functions.
Develop emergency corporate chain of command.
Develop essential contacts/relationships with governmental agencies.
Consider increasing security for warehouses and vehicles.
Develop procedures.
Develop plans to minimize the high potential for a fuel shortage.
Develop policies to address drivers/operators shortage.
Investigate the potential to secure housing for critical employees.
Develop cooperative arrangements with suppliers.

In addition, employers who are considering stockpiling antiviral drugs should plan for collaboration with state and local public health departments, comply with state and federal prescribing and dispensing laws and regulations, consider ethical and equity concerns as well as cost and logistical concerns, develop stockpiling and dispensing models and educate their employees.

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Australia – University Warns Pandemic Is Inevitable Advises 10 Week Stockpile of Food

Every Australian household should stockpile at least 10 weeks’ worth of food rations to prepare for a deadly flu pandemic, a panel of leading nutritionists has warned.

World health experts now agree a pandemic is inevitable and will spread rapidly, wiping out up to 7.4 million people globally and triggering rapid food shortages.

Australia is expected to be among the first countries hit because of its proximity to Asia and high levels of international traffic.

But Woolworths and Coles, the nation’s two major supermarket chains, will run out of stock within two to four weeks without a supply chain or even faster if shoppers panic.

This has prompted a team of leading nutritionists and dietitians from the University of Sydney to compile “food lifeboat” guidelines to cover people’s nutritional needs for at least 10 weeks.

Their advice published in the Medical Journal of Australia would allow citizens to stay inside their homes and avoid contact with infected people until a vaccine becomes available.

The lifeboat includes affordable long-life staples such as rice, biscuits, milk powder, Vegemite, canned tuna, chocolate, lentils, Milo and Weet-Bix.

Jennie Brand-Miller, professor of human nutrition at the University of Sydney and co-leader of the study, believes it is common sense to stockpile food before a pandemic strikes.

“It’s really not a question of if: it’s a question of when,” she said.

“We are going to have an epidemic. Chances are it will be avian flu (bird flu) but it might be something else.

“It will spread very rapidly just like flu does normally because it’s a highly contagious organism, except this will be a really lethal one. What we suffer from is a false sense of security that someone else is looking after all this.”

While there are emergency plans within governments, hospitals and the food industry, individuals will still need to take personal precautions in a disaster, she said.

The most important message for the Australian public is to avoid going out in public when the pandemic hits, the research found.

“We know that once it becomes a highly transmissable virus it will probably fly around the world within three weeks,” Prof Brand-Miller said.

“We know it’s got all the right conditions to start in Indonesia or Asia and there have already been human transmissions.

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Indonesia Worries Over Latest Bird Flu Samples

The H5N1 bird flu in Indonesia may have undergone a mutation that allows it to jump more easily from poultry to humans, the head of the country’s commission on bird flu control said on Wednesday.

Indonesia has recorded 79 human deaths from bird flu, the highest in the world, and the country has been struggling to contain the disease because millions of backyard chickens live in close proximity to humans across the archipelago.

‘In the past it took exposure of high intensity and density to get infected. There are now suspicions, early indications that this has become easier,’ Bayu Krisnamurthi told reporters.

He said, however, that the suspicion had yet to be confirmed.

A microbiologist at the bird flu commission said the suspicions were based on preliminary findings of molecular genetic tests conducted at laboratories in Indonesia.

‘Virus samples from poultry cases have increasingly shown a similarity in their amino acid structure to virus samples extracted from humans,’ Wayan Teguh Wibawan told Reuters.

‘This makes it easier for the virus to attach to human receptors,’ he said, referring to receptor cells lining the human throat and lungs.

For the H5N1 virus to pass easily from bird to human, it would have to be able to readily attach itself to these special cells.

For the moment, because H5N1 is a bird virus, it has evolved to easily attach to these receptors in poultry. Humans have a different type of receptor site, making it harder for people to become infected.

Wayan said he had spotted ‘gradual changes’ in the virus sample he receives every month. He did not give details on these gradual changes.

Lo Wing-lok, an infectious disease expert in Hong Kong, said changes such as these demonstrated how important it was for Jakarta to share virus samples.

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Chinese Soldier Dies of Bird Flu, WHO Says

A 19-year-old Chinese soldier has died of the H5N1 strain of bird flu, the country’s 16th reported death from the virus, the World Health Organization said Tuesday.

The man, stationed in the southern province of Fujian, died Sunday after being hospitalized May 14 with a fever and cough, said Joanna Brent, a spokeswoman for WHO’s Beijing office.

The Health Ministry, which gave the soldier’s surname as Cheng, informed WHO about the death on Sunday but did not give any details about his case, including how he contracted the disease or exactly where he was posted, Brent said.

“We’re always concerned about cases of bird flu,” she said.

The People’s Liberation Army has put all the man’s close contacts under observation, and “so far there are no clinical abnormalities. We understand it’s an individual case,” Brent said.

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Pandemic Inevitable So We Better Prepare

Influenza pandemics are inevitable.

That was the message delivered at this week’s pandemic influenza planning workshop. The message came from Phuoc Tran, executive director for the south central district of the Pennsylvania Department of Health.

Tran told the audience at the Shrewsbury Fire Co. that influenza pandemics occur at cyclical intervals. They occurred in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The so-called “Spanish Influenza” of 1918 killed 50 million to 100 million people worldwide and was the most destructive pandemic in world history to date.

In the United States, 28 percent of the population was infected and 500,000 to 675,000 Americans died.

In contrast to the infection patterns for the seasonal flu we see every winter, Tran said, most of the victims of Spanish Influenza were healthy, young adults.

The result?

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