The Next Step in Bird Flu Mutations

Since its isolation in humans in 1997, Avian flu has “percolated.” A few experts think that it bird flu will never make the jump to humans. On the other hand, the mainstream scientific community tends toward a cautionary position, noting that viruses have a tendency to constantly mutate.

Just a year ago, many scientists were saying that the likelihood of the bird to human jump was unlikely. But even if the current H5N1 never makes the jump to humans, there are variations and existing mutations that could.

They include H7N7, which infected 89 chicken industry workers in the Netherlands in 2003 but killed only one veterinarian; H9N2, which he says is in “every poultry house in Eurasia” and causes no symptoms but every once in a while jumps into immuno-suppressed people; and H2N2, which is in the wild bird population in the United States.

Based on the “Not if but when,” point of view, David Nabarro, a senior United Nations official in charge of the bird flu prevention effort warns that the world is not ready to deal with a potential Avian, or “bird” flu pandemic that could kill millions of people world-wide. The concern is that once the H5N1 or a variant mutates to the point where is can be transmitted from human to human, the spread around the globe will be quick, maybe outstripping the ability to develop and distribute a vaccine countermeasure.

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