Pandemic Drill Paints Dire Picture
October 31, 2007
If a pandemic strikes the U.S., it will kill about 1.7 million people, hospitalize 9 million, exhaust antiviral medications and reduce basic food supplies, according to a planning scenario developed by financial service firms preparing for such a catastrophe.
This particular disaster occurred only on paper. But those grim numbers are some of the pandemic planning assumptions used by nearly 3,000 banks, insurance companies and security firms in a just-concluded, three-week, paper-based exercise that may have been the largest pandemic test of its kind.
In each week of this drill, participants — some 10,000 people were involved — received an updated scenario and were asked to assess their capability to deliver services as the pandemic deepened and then abated.
“We wanted to look at the impact a pandemic can have on our sector,” said George Hender, chairman of the Financial Services Coordinating Council, in a teleconference Wednesday. “One of the things that we tried to do is put some real stress on the firms.”
The Next Step in Bird Flu Mutations
October 31, 2007
Since its isolation in humans in 1997, Avian flu has “percolated.” A few experts think that it bird flu will never make the jump to humans. On the other hand, the mainstream scientific community tends toward a cautionary position, noting that viruses have a tendency to constantly mutate.
Just a year ago, many scientists were saying that the likelihood of the bird to human jump was unlikely. But even if the current H5N1 never makes the jump to humans, there are variations and existing mutations that could.
They include H7N7, which infected 89 chicken industry workers in the Netherlands in 2003 but killed only one veterinarian; H9N2, which he says is in “every poultry house in Eurasia” and causes no symptoms but every once in a while jumps into immuno-suppressed people; and H2N2, which is in the wild bird population in the United States.
Based on the “Not if but when,” point of view, David Nabarro, a senior United Nations official in charge of the bird flu prevention effort warns that the world is not ready to deal with a potential Avian, or “bird” flu pandemic that could kill millions of people world-wide. The concern is that once the H5N1 or a variant mutates to the point where is can be transmitted from human to human, the spread around the globe will be quick, maybe outstripping the ability to develop and distribute a vaccine countermeasure.
North Dakota Prepares In Case of Flu Pandemic
October 24, 2007
We`re heading into the annual flu season, and doctors often urge their patient to get a vaccine.
Many people don`t bother, which can make them vulnerable, and the shot may not protect you against an unexpected strain of the virus.
If North Dakota is hit by a pandemic flu, agencies across the state want to make sure residents will be okay.
The North Dakota Department of Emergency Services, the Department of Health and the National Guard are working on ways to synchronize their responses and determine if others need to be part of the team as well.
Alan, a pandemic flu could pose a workforce problem.
Emergency Services says if an engineer at a water treatment plant got sick during a pandemic flu, thousands of people could go without water.
It says that`s just one example of why agencies are working now to make sure they can respond effectively in the event of a pandemic flu.
If a Pandemic Flu hits, the Department of Emergency Services says it will be a worldwide problem. And North Dakota won`t be immune.
“Though nothing is physically happening out on the ground there are people injecting messages as if something was occurring out there in the field,” saus Greg Wilz of ND Homeland Security.
It`s a new scenario to see if a their plan needs to be altered.
“Certainly there are a lot of aspects that are going to pull us through an event like this,” Wilz says. “From agencies being well prepared and working together and resourced properly to the personal preparedness of individuals.”
Leiutenant Mike Gerhart of the North Dakota Highway Patrol says if people aren`t prepared, problems could arise.
“There could be issues where people would panic,” Gerhart says. “There`s also issues with traffic and security issues that we would need to address.”
Still, there`s a lot of work to be done.
“Truly at this point and time it`s too early to tell if we`ll be all ok,” Wilz says. “We`re definitely going to have loss of life in a pandemic event.”
So as a group they`re making sure everything`s in place to respond to a real event.
Who Is First In Line For Flu Pandemic Vaccinations
October 24, 2007
Pregnant women, infants and toddlers would be among the first in line to be vaccinated should there be a flu pandemic, according to a plan drafted by the government.
They would join doctors, soldiers and emergency workers at the head of the line.
The draft plan is to be released today. Officials say it would be important to safeguard young children with a vaccine because they’re highly likely to spread the virus. And the plan reflects growing agreement that curbing a super-flu would require protecting those who care for the sick.
Once more vaccine is brewed, older children and people who keep water, electricity and phone lines running would be vaccinated.
At the back of the line: the elderly and healthy young adults.
A public health advocacy group that tracks pandemic preparations says there’s still a question about whether enough syringes are stockpiled to vaccinate that many people.
7 children suspected with bird flu in Indonesias Riau
October 24, 2007
Seven children aged between one and 10 years old have been suspected of having bird flu in Indonesias Riau province, where four people have died of the virus in recent months, an official said Tuesday.
“It is only suspicion but we are serious to handle the case,” local head office head Hasanul Irbai was quoted by leading news website Detikcom as saying.
The seven children live in Merampi Hulu village, Siak regency in the province on Sumatra island.
“The Siak government will immediately send the children to the Arifin Achmad Hospital in provincial capital Pekanbaru,” he said.
Earlier this week, the government confirmed that bird flu was the cause of the death of a 10-year-old girl in Riau, bringing the total of national casualties to 89, the highest among other bird-flu affected countries in the world.
Bird Flu Spreads Among Humans - WHO
October 23, 2007
The h5n1 strain of bird flu has finally managed to spread from person to person, according to officials of the World Health Organisation (WHO).
Until now, it was spread from birds to humans. They warned that if the bird flu virus mutated to easily spread between humans, it could spark a global pandemic, killing millions.
In Thailand, when a mother was hospitalised with avian influenza, her daughter, who lived away from bird-rearing contracted the virus when she came to visit her in hospital.
The Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Centre in Seattle, US also examined a second family cluster outbreak in Turkey last year, but did not have the evidence to confirm or refute human-to-human transmission.
The researchers have for the first time proved that the virus has spread between a “cluster” of people.
Indonesia, with 84 bird flu deaths, the highest toll in the world, has tried to downplay fears of the spread.
The head of research at the Indonesian health ministry, Triono Soendono, said the findings were “just one” piece of research.
But the WHO assistant director for communicable diseases, David Heymann, said it was likely the Sumatran virus was spread by human-to-human contact.
“We believe there has likely been transmission through intimate or close contact,” he said.
Dr. Sam Okware, the commissioner, community health, who is also the chairman of the National Task Force on the disease, said it was sad news.
“But we are also improving capacity and training for surveillance to handle it every day. The laboratory at the Virus Research Institute is ready,” he affirmed.
Suburban Superbug Scare Just A Preview Of Real Threat
October 23, 2007
Most people believe they are indestructible and immortal. Especially teenagers.
So just because a couple of Naperville high school football players were diagnosed with an antibiotic-resistant infection, dont expect their teammates and friends to heed warnings against sharing towels, razors and water bottles.
The “superbug,” known as MRSA for methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureas, has been around for a long time. It used to infect primarily hospital patients. Then, in the 1990s, it began invading prep and pro locker rooms, usually through skin-to-skin contact and the sharing of personal hygiene items.
And just because schools in some states are being shut down and federal health officials expect almost 20,000 people to die this year from MRSA infections more than from AIDS dont expect the government to be able to stop it from happening.
But as Ronald Reagan used to end his stump-speeches, “you aint seen nothin yet.”
The staph outbreak is just a prelude to the coming human sickness that has public health experts as traumatized as Ellen DeGeneres was over her dog adoption. And it has received far, far less attention.
What would you say if someone told you that 99,000 people were going to die from the germ of the future? Not around the world … in Illinois alone.
Not that 99,000 people in Illinois might die from it, but that they will die. Just a matter of when.
That is the preview from public health experts of what is to come when the next, drug resistant, pandemic flu outbreak sweeps the United States.
The Illinois numbers are part of a state-by-state breakdown commissioned by the U.S. Pandemic Preparedness Initiative and released with little fanfare last spring.
The report, researched by the health advocacy group “Trust for Americas Health,” based its findings on an outbreak as severe as the 1918 American pandemic.
Besides the 99,000 deaths in Illinois, the report projects nearly 3.8 million workers would become sick in our state and have to stay home.
The economic impact of such a modern pandemic on Illinois would be $31.3 billion. That would represent a 5.6 percent drop in the state economy.
According to the report, a severe flu outbreak could plunge the nation into the second worst recession since World War II.
Unlike the staph infection outbreak that is affecting a few communities for a short time here and there, an actual pandemic of the flu would affect everyone everywhere and could last a year and a half composed in waves of six to eight weeks.
What to do? Last week the American Academy of Pediatrics cited some gaps that need to be filled immediately if we are to head-off a deadly flu onslaught against children-who are among the most susceptible.
The AAP reported:
• There are only 100,000 doses of antivirals for children in the Strategic National Stockpile. There are currently 73.6 million children in the U.S.
New Bird Flu Strain Dangerous To Humans
October 10, 2007
A new strain of the bird flu virus spreading around the world is more infectious to humans, a study lead by a U.S. researcher has found.
Led by Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the new study found the H5N1 virus has apparently mutated into a new strain that increases the risk of a human pandemic due to its increased level of communicability, The Independent said Saturday.
Kawaoka said the new strain does not represent a fully pandemic strain of the virus, but warned the mutated virus has been found in both Europe and Africa.
“The viruses circulating in Europe and Africa all have this mutation,” the doctor said. “So they are the ones that are closer to human-like flu.”
Since the virus was first reported in 2003, 329 people worldwide have been infected according to World Health Organization figures.
Those figures also show that of those infected during that time period, 201 have died as a result.
The British newspaper said health groups worldwide have prepared for a possible pandemic by collecting anti-flu drugs and preparing emergency treatment plans.
Bird Flu Virus Strain In Vietnam Mutates
October 10, 2007
Bird flu virus strain in Vietnam has mutated, becoming more dangerous, local newspaper Pioneer reported Wednesday.
However, the mutation is not big enough for the virus to transmit among humans, the paper quoted Vietnamese Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Cao Duc Phat as saying at a meeting of the country’s Anti-bird flu Central Steering Committee on Tuesday.
The vaccination among poultry is still effective in preventing the disease due to the high compatibly between the vaccine and the virus, he said.
Vietnam is encountering high risk of bird flu reoccurrence late this year, when cold weather condition is more favorable for the development of viruses, he said.
The minister has asked local relevant agencies to focus on intensifying disease surveillance, monitoring of poultry raising, transporting and trading, and vaccination among fowls nationwide.
Vietnam has detected seven bird flu patients from the five northern provinces of Vinh Phuc, Thai Nguyen, Thanh Hoa, Ha Nam and Ha Tay since May 10, of whom four died, according to the Preventive Medicine Department under the Vietnamese Health Ministry.
Bird flu outbreaks in Vietnam, starting in December 2003, have killed and led to the forced culling of dozens of millions of fowls in the country, according to the Department of Animal Health under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
Gaps In European Flu Pandemic Plans Could Produce Chaos
October 10, 2007
European plans to cope with a possible flu pandemic have major weaknesses which might lead to chaos, a study published by the World Health Organization said Tuesday.
The study of 29 European countries by scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said authorities must urgently tackle shortcomings in preparation for vaccine and antiviral drug distribution, insufficient stockpiles, and incoherent plans for border controls.
It warned that many European governments risked “chaotic service responses and public anxiety” by leaving it up to regional or local authorities to organise drug delivery during a pandemic and giving them little guidance.
“Our findings show that even in Europe, which may be better prepared than some regions, considerable gaps and inconsistencies persist and several areas of operational planning have not been addressed,” the study published in the October issue of the WHO Bulletin said.
The authors concluded that “the remaining gaps and inconsistencies need urgent attention” despite outwardly strong government commitment in Europe and strengthened planning since their last evaluation in 2005.
Scientists fear that the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which emerged in humans in Asia in the 1990s, could mutate into a more virulent form that could easily be passed between humans, triggering a global flu pandemic with the potential to kill millions.
Some 329 people have contracted H5N1 bird flu since 2003, of whom 201 have died, according to the WHO. Most of the human cases have been in Asia but it has also spread to the Middle East and Nigeria.
The outbreaks triggered a WHO-led drive in recent years to bolster preparedness for a pandemic, including stockpiling of antiviral drug treatments, greater vaccine research and advance emergency planning.
The study said only half the countries had developed full storage and delivery strategies for antiviral drugs, particularly as a preventive treatment to slow the spread of pandemic flu.
“The issue of how to deliver antivirals within 48 hours to individual patients remains largely unresolved,” it added.
Vaccine strategies had “important gaps” and only a minority of the countries surveyed had guidelines on vaccine storage, distribution and administration during an emergency.
One country did not have plans for pandemic vaccination at all.
